Sanders Tied for First With Biden in Nevada While Warren Edges Bernie for Second in Carolina: Poll

New CNN polls from two key early states released Sunday solidify the notion that the Democratic Party presidential primary has largely become a three-way race between Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

The new polling figures show that Sanders and Biden are tied for first place in Nevada (both receiving 22%), while a third-place Warren trails slightly at 18% — just four points behind and within the margin of error. In Nevada, the state survey (pdf)—coupled with national demographic trends—suggests Sanders first-place finish has much to do with his strong support from Latinx voters and the working class.

In Nevada, notes CNN,  Sanders “does about twice as well among whites without a college degree in our sample than whites with a college degree. That matches what we see nationally.” With Warren surging in other recent state and national polls, CNN political analysis Henry Enten said “our Nevada poll is the best news for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by far” over the last couple of weeks.

In South Carolina, meanwhile, the poll (pdf) shows Biden with 37% — a more commanding lead over Warren’s spot in second place with 16% and Sanders’ 11% which landed him in third place. Both in Nevada and South Carolina, no other candidate escaped low single digits.

According to Enten’s review of the South Carolina data:

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While Biden received the support of 45% of black voters in the South Carolina poll, Sanders was at 13% compared to Warren’s 4%.

“Black voters, of course,” notes Enten, “make up a majority or near a majority of Democratic primary voters in southern primaries such as Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina. Warren’s going to run into some major problems in southern primaries if she can’t do better with this bloc of voters.”

As Vox‘s Dylan Scott detailed last week, there is much evidence now to support the idea that the primary has become a three-way race:

With announcement this week of an official impeachment inquiring into President Donald Trump by House Democrats, the stakes of the 2020 elections continue to rise. One thing national polls have repeatedly shown is that Biden, Sanders, and Warren all beat Trump in hypothetical general election matchups.

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