By the Secret Psychic Spy (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Starting Bankroll: $1,500
Current Bankroll: $896.41
Last week: 2/5 Overall 70/124 (56%)
The bankroll took a bit of a hit last week, going 2/5. If Duke had managed to finish in the third round like she looked like she was about to, that would’ve meant a profit but c’est la vie! Two big shows this weekend, with UFC 190 and WSOF 22. I’ve got 1 value pick from the WSOF event and 4 from the UFC show.
Pick 1 – Clifford Starks (11-2) -145 over Mike Kyle (21-12-1) I’m betting $100 to win $68.97
This is from the WSOF show. Both guys are on opposite career paths, with Starks looking great since joining WSOF and Kyle….not so much. Starks has won 3 straight since being cut from UC and should make it 4 here in the WSOF opener.
Pick 2 – Fernando Bruno (15-2) +150 over Glaico Franco (12-3) I’m betting $100 to win $150
Two guys from TUF Brazil squaring off in the finals of the Lightweight tournament squaring off here in a feature fight on tonight’s PPV. Bruno is on a longer winning streak coming into his official UFC debut and he’s also higher ranked in Brazil. He is moving up a weight class so will be smaller but I still like the plus odds here.
Pick 3 – Jessica Aguilar (19-4) +325 over Claudia Gadelha (12-1) I’m betting $100 to win $425
I think these odds are insane. Aguilar has won 10 in a row and was the number one ranked strawweight in the world up until a couple of months ago. I’ve seen most of those 10 fights and Aguilar always seems to find a way to win. And she’s beaten some quality fighters in that stretch, mainly in WSOF and Bellator. Gadelha is the favorite because she took the Joanna Champion to the limit when they fought last year but she shouldn’t be this big a favorite.
Pick 4 – Clint Hester (11-4) -150 over Vitor Miranda (10-4) I’m betting $100 to win $66.67
Hester had a setback in his last fight, getting KO’d by Robert Whitaker but prior to that he’d been on a 4 fight win streak since his UFC debut. He’s the more accomplished fighter and should have little trouble with Miranda, who has just two UFC fights, splitting the results.
Pick 5 – Shogun Rua (22-10) -210 over Rogerio Nogueira (21-6) I’m betting $100 to win $47.62
Rua’s record non-withstanding, he has the better resume in UFC, having been a former champion and fighting a much higher level of competition than Little Nog. Nog was blitzed by Anthony Johnson in his last fight and it’s tough to recover from a beating like this. Whatever happens, this fight should be quick and I like the power of Rua against the submission skills of Nogueira here.
All told, I’m betting $500 with a chance to win $658.25
On with the betting game.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick
Ryan Frederick: $1,082.53 (Picked Eye, Leites, Lawler, Gordon, Hein, Alvarez, Ortega, Noons, Browne, Magny, Matthews)
Secret Psychic Spy: $1,470.18 (Picked Duke, Rivera, Samman, Bosse, Amirkhani, Henderson, Breese, Pyle, Wee, Andrews)
We both lost last week, picking female underdogs. I think I came closest to winning as Duke came on strong. Many thought she at least earned a draw with a 10-8 third but she did handily lose the first two rounds. Eye was completely outclassed by a vastly improved Tate, as she’s now set to challenge for the title, probably on January 2nd.
This week, I’m picking Fernando Bruno in the TUF Brazil Lightweight finals at +150 for the reasons listed above.
I’m going Jessica Aguilar +340 over Claudia Gadelha. They are very closely matched and I’m honestly quite shocked the betting lines are as far apart as they are. While I picked Gadelha in my official preview piece, it is hard to overlook Aguilar at her current odds. She was ranked as the top strawweight in the world, ahead of Gadelha, and her signing is a huge boost to the division. I’m going with the, what is on the odds, upset, though I wouldn’t see it as much of an upset in reality.
Good luck, enjoy the fights and remember, don’t bet more than you can afford to lose and try to have fun with it!